Category Archive : Wall Street

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‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world – CNBC

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Fedperiodl Reserve, all by way of a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022.

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Pictures

As a Outcome of the Fedperiodl Reserve ramps up efforts to tame inflation, sending the greenagain surging and bonds and shares Proper into a tailspin, cas quickly asrn is rising that the central financial institution’s advertising campaign Might have unintended and probably dire penalties.

Markets entered A dangerous new half Prior to now week, one By which statistically unusual strikes throughout asset packages Have acquiredten commonplace. The inventory selloff will get A lot of the headlines, However It is Inside the gyrations and interplay of the far greater worldbroad markets for currencies and bonds wright here problem is brewing, Based mostly on Wall Road vetperiodns.

After being criticized for being sluggish To acknowledge inflation, the Fed has Launched into its most aggressive collection of price hikes As a Outcome of the Nineteen Eighties. From shut to-zero in March, the Fed has pushed its benchmark price to a goal of A minimal Of three%. On The identical time, the plan to unwind its $8.8 trillion stability sheet in a course of referred to as “quantitative tightening,” or QT — permitting proceeds from securities the Fed has on its books to roll off every month Rather than being reinvested — has eliminated The Most very important purchaser of Treasurys and mortgage securities from the market.  

“The Fed is breaking issues,” said Benjamin Dunn, a former hedge fund chief hazard officer who now runs consultancy Alpha Concept Advisors. “Tright here’s exactly nothing historic You will Have The power to level to for What Goes on on in markets right now; We’re seeing a quantity of regular deby way oftion strikes in issues Simply like the Swedish krona, in Treasurys, in oil, in silver, like every completely different day. These aren’t healthful strikes.”

Dollar’s warning

For now, It is the as quickly as-in-a-period rise Inside the greenagain that has captivated market observers. Global purchasers are flocking to greater-yielding U.S. belongings As a Outcome of of the Fed’s actions, and the greenagain has gained in power wright hereas rival currencies wilt, pushing the ICE Dollar Index to Definitely one of the biggest yr since its inception in 1985.

“Such U.S. greenagain power has traditionally led to some Sort of monetary or financial disaster,” Morgan Stanley chief equity stpricegist Michael Wilson said Monday in a notice. Previous peaks Inside the greenagain have coincided with the the Mexican debt disaster of the early Nineteen Nineties, the U.S. tech inventory bubble of the late 90s, the housing mania that preceded the 2008 monetary disaster and the 2012 sovereign debt disaster, Based mostly on the funding financial institution.

The greenagain Helps to destabilize overseas economies Because it will enhance inflationary strains outdoors the U.S., Barclays worldbroad head of FX and rising markets stpricegy Themistoklis Fiotakis said Thursday in a notice.

The “Fed is now in overdrive And that is supercharging the greenagain in a method which, to us A minimal of, was exhausting to envisage” earlier, he wrote. “Markets Might Even be underestimating the inflationary influence of a rising greenagain on The Reprimaryder of the world.”

It is in the direction of that strong greenagain againdrop that the Bank of England was straind to prop up The market for its sovereign debt on Wednesday. Investors had been dumping U.K. belongings in strain starting final week after The fedperiodl authorities unveiled plans to stimulate its financial system, strikes that run counter to preventing inflation.

The U.K. episode, which made the Bank of England The client of final resort for its personal debt, Might be just The primary intervention a central financial institution is straind To Take in coming months.

Repo fears

Tright here are two broad packages of cas quickly asrn Immediately: Surging volatility in what are Alleged to be the most safe fixed income devices On the earth could disrupt the monetary system’s plumbing, Based mostly on Mark Connors, The earlier Credit rating Suisse worldbroad head of hazard advisory who joined Canadian digital belongings agency 3iQ in Might.

Since Treasurys are agained by The complete religion and credit of the U.S. authorities and are used as collatperiodl in in a single day funding markets, their decline in worth and ensuing greater yields could gum up The modern functioning of these markets, he said.

Factors Inside the repo market happenred most currently in September 2019, when the Fed was straind to inject billions of greenagains to calm dpersonal the repo market, An important brief-time period funding mechanism for financial institutions, agencys and authoritiess.

“The Fed may Want to stabilize The worth of Treasurys right here; we’re getting shut,” said Connors, a market halficipant for Higher than 30 yrs. “What’s occurring may require them to step in And current emergency funding.”

Doing so will probably strain the Fed To place a halt to its quantitative tightening program forward of schedule, just as the Bank of England did, Based mostly on Connors. While Which may confuse the Fed’s messaging that It is appearing strong on inflation, the central financial institution Might Have not any selection, he said.

`Anticipate a tsunami’

The second fear is that whipsawing markets will expose weak palms amongst asset managers, hedge funds or completely different gamers who Could have been overlevperiodged or took unwise hazards. While a blow-up Might be contained, It is potential that margin calls And compelled liquidations could further roil markets.

“Everytime You’ve the greenagain spike, expect a tsunami,” Connors said. “Money floods one space and leaves completely different belongings; Tright here is a knock-on influence tright here.”

The rising correlation amongst belongings in current weeks reminds Dunn, the ex-hazard officer, of the interval right earlier than the 2008 monetary disaster, when foreign money bets imploded, he said. Carry commerces, which contain borrowing at low prices and reinvesting in greater-yielding devices, typically with The assist of levperiodge, have a historic past of blow ups.

“The Fed and All of the central financial institution actions are creating the againdrop for A pretty sizable carry unwind Immediately,” Dunn said.

The stronger greenagain furtherly has completely different influences: It makes broad swaths of greenagain-denominated bonds issued by non-U.S. gamers extra sturdy to repay, which could strain rising markets already Battling inflation. And completely different nations could offload U.S. securities in a bid to defend their currencies, exacerbating strikes in Treasurys.

So-referred to as zombie corporations Which have managed To primarytain afloat As a Outcome of of low Rate of curiosity environment of the past 15 yrs will probably face a “reckoning” of defaults as they wrestle to faucet Costlier debt, Based mostly on Deutsche Bank stpricegist Tim Wessel.

Wessel, a former Ny Fed worker, said that he Even believes It is probably that the Fed Might need to halt its QT program. That would happen if funding prices spike, However in addition if the financial institutioning enterprise’s reserves decline An extreme quantity of for the regulator’s comfort, he said.

Worry of the unacknowledged

Nonetheless, just as Nobody anticipated that an obscure pension fund commerce would ignite a cascade of promoting that cpricered British bonds, It is the unacknowledgeds That are most regarding, says Wessel. The Fed is “studying in exact time” how markets will react As a Outcome of it makes an try to rein Inside the assist its given As a Outcome of the 2008 disaster, he said.

“The exact fear is That you merely Do not know wright here To look for these hazards,” Wessel said. “That is Definitely one of many levels of tightening monetary circumstances; It is That People that acquired over-prolonged finally pay The worth.”

Paradoxically, It is the reforms that acquired here out of the final worldbroad disaster Which have made markets extra fragile. Buying and promoting throughout asset packages is thinner and simpler to disrupt after U.S. regulators straind financial institutions To tug again from proprietary trading actions, a dynamic that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly warned about.

Regulators did that because financial institutions took on extreme hazard earlier than the 2008 disaster, assuming that finally they’d be bailed out. While the reforms pushed hazard out of financial institutions, which are far safer right now, it has made central financial institutions Deal with A lot extra of the burden of primarytaining markets afloat.

With the potential exception of problemd European corporations like Credit rating Suisse, purchasers and analysts said Tright here’s confidence That the primaryity financial institutions Shall be In a place To face up to market turmoil forward.

What’s turning into extra apparent, however, is that It Goes to be troublesome for the U.S. — and completely different primary economies — to wean themselves off the extraordinary assist the Fed has given it Prior to now 15 yrs. It is a world that Allianz financial advisor Mohamed El-Erian derisively Usually acknowledged as a “la-la land” of central financial institution affect.

“The drawback with all That is that It is Their very personal insurance covperiodge policies that created the fragility, Their very personal insurance covperiodge policies that created the dislocations and now we’re Counting on their insurance covperiodge policies To deal with the dislocations,” Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group said. “It is all pretty a messed-up world.”

Correction: An earlier mannequin missaid The tactic of quantitative tightening.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/01/the-fed-is-breaking-things-heres-what-has-wall-street-on-edge-as-risks-rise-around-the-world.html

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These are the most heavily shorted stocks on Wall Street, including big bets against crypto names – CNBC

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/these-are-the-most-heavily-shorted-stocks-on-wall-street-including-big-bets-against-crypto-names.html

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Top Wall Street analysts name their best stock ideas to ride out the market turbulence – CNBC

Jim Umpleby, CEO of Caterpunwellar Inc.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

This yr has already been A troublesome one, and 2023 Isn’t wanting Tons greater, with financial progress anticipated by the Fedperiodl Reserve To return in at simply 1.2%. Given this dour outlook, buyers Ought to rigorously choose wright here To place their money to work.

To choose The biggest shares, staying Aware of what Wall Road analysts are saying Might be of assist. Listed right here are 5 shares chosen by execs Who’re On The very Better of their recreation, Based mostly on TipRanks, which ranks analysts based on their efficiency data.

associated investing information

Analysts identify The very biggest ‘extreme conviction’ shares For having fun with the market turbulence

Caterpunwellar

Mining gear producer Caterpunwellar (CAT) is navigating current chain snarls And worth pressures like a champion. Value-saving and pricing actions are serving to The agency enhance its prime and backside strains even when finish markets stay risky.

The North American housing market has slowed significantly, with the unwell outcomes trickling Proper down to enhancement gear demand. However, Cowen analyst Matt Elkott thinks that finish-markets like housing are anticipated To level out enhancement in 2023 and wunwell recupeprice extra implyingfully in 2024. (See Caterpunwellar Inventory Chart on TipRanks).

Elkott additionally expects a late-2023 recupepricey in revenues as quickly as the Biden administration’s infrastructure bunwell kicks in. Income advantages from the bunwell Also Should be implyingful in 2024. Furtherextra, Elkott is optimistic about Caterpunwellar’s providers half progress.

“Growth Inside The agency’s providers revenue is on monitor To fulfill the objective of doubling by 2026 to $28B. The mannequin new state Of worldwide power insecurity Ought to be supportive of oil & gasoline CapEx, A minimal of by the privates for now,” the analyst famous.

Elkott has a buy rating and a $225 worth goal on the stock. He primarytains the 782nd place amongst virtually 8,000 analysts monitored on TipRanks and has Worthwhile price of 52%. Every of his scores has garnered common returns of 12.5%.

Nationwide Devices

Nationwide Devices (NATI) has a resilient enterprise of creating automated testing and measurement methods To assist the evaluation and validation Of latest utilized sciences. Earlier this yr, the lockdown in Shanghai and suspension of opperiodtions in Russia harm The agency’s enterprise.

Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney is bullish on The agency. (See Nationwide Devices Dividfinish Date & Historic previous on TipRanks).

Nationwide Devices opeprices in enterprise-particular enterprise mannequins (BU’s), That are depfinishent on secular trfinishs, and a BU portfolio That is uncovered to macrofinancial elements. Now, The agency is Specializing in attaining its goal of conveying in A minimal of 74% of its revenue from its enterprise-particular BU’s by 2025. This transition Is predicted to make The agency extra resilient to market cycles Inside The approaching yrs.

Strong uptrfinishs in rising utilized sciences like ADAS (Superior Driver Help Systems), electrical automobiles and 5G make Delaney think about thOn The agency can Get up to an financial slowdown greater than many, “as parts of its enterprise are tied to secularly rising finish markets” Which have defensive traits.

The analyst has a buy rating on NATI stock with a worth goal of $49.

Delaney, Who’s ranked No. 765 amongst shut toly 8,000 analysts ranked on TipRanks, has had success with 56% of his scores. A imply of 9.8% returns have been genepriced on each of his scores.

Plug Energy

Hydrogen gasoline cell developer Plug Energy (PLUG) Is Among The numerous prime beneficiaries of the Inflation Discount Act (IRA), which was signed into regulation final month. In accordance to the regulation, a $3 per kg manufacturing tax credit rating wunwell be currentd to builders producing inexperienced hydrogen (hydrogen produced with electrolyzers sourced from clear power).

H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal thinks the IRA assists taxpayers Inside the hydrogen enterprise “to stack credit scores And permit for change of hydrogen-associated tax credit scores.” To this finish, Plug Energy has already entered a quantity of halfnerships with primary corporations, collectively with Amazon (AMZN), To current inexperienced hydrogen and electrolyzers, and Dayal expects extra such provides to be signed in 2023. (See Plug Energy Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks).

“We think about the IRA Ought to be supportive to Plug’s goal of constructing out its inexperienced hydrogen period community to 70 tons per day (TPD) manufacturing by The prime of 2022, 500TPD in North America by 2025 and 1,000TPD globally by 2028,” famous Dayal.

Dayal May even be Looking forward to Plug Energy To start scaling and absorbing its early upfront funding prices, as This Is in a place to increase its shut to-time period monetary efficiency by enhancing working prices and margins. The analyst expects The agency to geneprice working revenue in 2025.

“We think about thOn The agency should Be In a place to develop its gross margins from adverse ranges right now To fifteen.7% in 2023 and subsequently attain roughly 35.0% by 2030 as revenues proceed to rise,” projected Dayal.

Apparently, Dayal is a 5-star priced analyst on TipRanks, and is ranked No. 27 amongst virtually 8,000 analysts monitored on the platform. About 42% of his scores have been successful and have genepriced 44.9% common returns per event.

Salesforce

As its ticker picture suggests, Salesforce (CRM) is a buyer relationship administration Computer software huge, which is benefiting from the rising digitalization of industries. The agency final week currentd an upbeat medium-time period revenue and margin forecast, which pulled extra buyers to its shares.

Enlargement of The agency’s addressable market, geographic unfold and buyer base are key progress catalysts Which are serving to it navigate the pessimism round tech shares with finesse. (See Salesforce Inventory Investors on TipRanks).

Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White predicted thOn The current headwinds, collectively with recession-associated considperiodtions, inflationary pressures and rising geopolitical factors, wunwell primarytain Salesforce from realizing its full progress potential over The subsequent 12-18 months.

Stunwell, White Is Among The numerous Salesforce bulls, who primarytain strong convictions Regarding The agency’s longer-time period execspects. Although White acknowledged The factors Which might Embrace a recession (which appears virtually incas quickly asivable to primarytain away from, as of now), he said that Salesforce is “uniquely placeed” To revenue from accelepriced digital transformation in The Prolonged time period.

“Salesforce has demonstpriced A performance to navigate turbulent events greater than most Computer software corporations, a testament to relentless innovation, acquisitions, fantastic execution, And extremely effective secular trfinishs,” White said.

The analyst reitepriced his buy rating on Salesforce. He has a worth goal of $215. White primarytains a rank of 484 amongst shut toly 8,000 analysts monitored on TipRanks. Fifty-seven % of his scores have been revenueable, with each producing common returns of 10.4%.

Adobe

Adobe (ADBE)currently disapleveled buyers with an earnings miss, and its current signing of a deal To accumulate collaborative product design platform Figma for a whopping $20 bunwellion baffled buyers. Adobe’s worth goals have been slashed and The agency was even downgraded by A pair of.

Stunwell, Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan decided to go in the direction of the tide and reiteprice his Buy rating on the stock with a worth goal of $540. “We see Adobe investing in a market transition Which will entry A huge TAM and drive progress accelperiodtion,” said Rangan, talking Regarding the execspects of the Figma acquisition. (See Adobe Hedge Fund Buying and promoting Exercise on TipRanks).

Expressing religion Inside The agency’s choice, the analyst recalled how Adobe’s 2005 acquisition of Macromedia and its enterprise mannequin transition of 2011 increaseed its progress potential manifold.

Furtherextra, drawing comparisons with completely different primary acquisitions, Rangan famous that Figma’s integration into Adobe would convey on board extra builders, developing its market alternative Similar to LinkedIn and Github elevated Microsoft’s (MSFT).

“Based mostly on The extent of innovation Adobe has Delivered to each stpricegic transaction it has made, we think about It could increase Figma’s $16.5bn TAM,” noticed Rangan, Who’s ranked 769th amongst about 8,000 analysts on TipRanks.

The analyst has 55% revenueable scores, with each rating having garnered 7.1% common returns.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/25/top-wall-street-analysts-say-buy-caterpillar-salesforce.html

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Wall Street Is Delusional About Coming Stock Market Crash, Recession – Business Insider

The complete worldwide financial system is bracing for a progress shock. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that People ought to anticipate a housing correction, greater unemployment, And mightbe even a recession As a Outcome of it raises Costs of curiosity To relax inflation.

Regardless of this clear warning, Wall Road Continues to be delusionally optimistic about how the inventory market will carry out in 2023.

Constructive, the S&P 500 has fallen 11%, and the Dow has dropped 9% Inside the final month. However estimates For a method a lot revenue S&P 500 corporations will earn subsequent yr are nonetheless wildly out of sync with what’s coming for the financial system.

Initially of 2022, the Federal Reserve believed that inflation was transitory — thOn The current-demand dislocations Launched on by the COVID-19 pandemic would clear up with out a lot use of strain. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, utterly upending meals and power markets. Inflation, it turned out, was stickier than the world had imagined. And so the Federal Reserve started to hike Costs of curiosity to Decelerate our blazing scorching financial system, overrun with demand.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell final week reiterated his dedication to beating inflation again Proper down to 2% — Even when it implys elevating rates so extreme it causes a recession. And, he admitted, finally Which will imply ache for the labor market — layoffs.

Wall Road’s rosy projections for agency income Do not sq. with what Powell ensures is coming for the financial system. It is about to get a exactity look at.

It is a Good distance down

2021 was a bumper yr for American capitalism, or for American agencys A minimal of. US agency-revenue margins fattened to levels unseen As a Outcome of the Nineteen Fifties. When current chains snarled As a Outcome of of pandemic, corporations raised prices. As inflation enhanced enter prices, they raised prices extra. People had stimulus look ats to spend, and Costs of curiosity have been so low debt was straightforward to entry. 

These pitch-good circumstances are gone now. And Which implys income — An important An factor of how An group’s inventory is valued — are going to sink.

Regardless of the financial mess and worsening revenue outlook, Wall Road nonetheless seems comparatively chill Regarding the markets’ execspects. Based mostly on Bloomberg, Wall Road analysts anticipate S&P 500 corporations’ earnings per share to hit $229 in 2023 — A delicate enhance from their preliminary 2023 estimate of $211 Initially of this yr. Sure, despite the Fed jacking up Costs of curiosity and threatening to induce a recession, the market execs have gotten extra optimistic about income subsequent yr.

In exactity, their fashions assume thOn the enhancement spractices of doc-breaking income We have seen will proceed — mightbe not apace, but A minimal of up and to The biggest. That Does not make sense given the strain the Federal Reserve is making use of to the financial system, Even when its insurance coverage policies simply take it from scorching scorching to warmth. 

Justin Simon, a portfolio supervisor On the hedge fund Jasper Capital, took me by way of a worrying thought practice. Pretend It is the prime of 2019 — not a horrible time for the inventory market and the US financial system. Even if agency income sink again Proper down to that healthful diploma, It is nonetheless a Good distance down from the place the inventory market sits Immediately.

“The hazard to the market right Now’s that earnings per share normalizes to pre-COVID levels,” Simon said, “roughly $160 a share.” If income have been to fall again Based mostly on earnings, That implys a 30% to 40% draw again to the place the market sits Immediately, in accordance to Simon.

Nobody is Aware of how extreme Powell Should hike rates — or For a method prolonged — To relax inflation. Whether or not that Leads to A quick downturn or a recession, All of us know that no matter is coming Will not be positive for agency earnings. Since 1960, earnings have dropped all by way of recessions by A imply of 31%. And the prolongeder the financial droop — and by extension the revenue droop — finals, The extra extreme It’s going to be for shares.

Nothing dangerous has occurred…but

Wall Road is in denial, Partially Since the financial system has been so resilient. Regardless of historic inflation, the US shopper has proceedd to chug aprolongedside, and unemployment Continues to be at doc lows. When Powell introduced on Wednesday thOn the Fed had decided to hike rates by 0.75% the market rose Barely, then went sidemethods earlier than diving off a cliff. Equity ibuyers are confused, As a Outcome of the retipurple Goldman Sachs companion Abby Joseph Cohen put it in an interview with Bloomberg. They do not Understand how This will shake out for The The rest of this yr, Not to mention subsequent yr.

Companies Have not exactly helped to Clarify This event For his or her buyers, both. Truly, it seems they’re lagging behind Powell. Over at Freight Waves, my former colleague Rachel Premack Recognized that A lot Of huge corporations have been caught flat-footed as People modified spending habits To mirror a submit-pandemic, extreme-inflation world. Companies like Amazon, Goal, and Ford have Needed To vary plans or decrease their earnings estimates. Earlier this month, FedEx reported dismal earnings and lowepurple its steerage for subsequent yr based on the slowing worldwide financial system. The agency’s inventory fell 24% after its announcement. These Are only a few corporations — The The rest of agency America Continues to be Figuring out whOn these new circumstances imply for them. As Costs of curiosity rise, For event, corporations that Trusted Low price debt or tons of liquidity To survive will face a impolite awakening.

That might not a world the place earnings Continue to develop, However the Federal Reserve is altering the parameters of the financial system so dramatically that Wall Road’s plug-and-chug fashions are ineffective Inside the face of it. Investors’ estimates will finally plummet As a Outcome of they finally Get As a lot As a Outcome of the “ache” Powell promised — and when that occurs, volatility will reign as shit will get exact.

All of the visuals You’ve seen of a screaming-purple inventory market and sweaty retailers doing the signal of the cross — those Are only The start. Wall Road has been flying so extreme it forgot that shares don’t On A daily basis go up. And The greater you fly, the farther you fall.


Linette Lopez is a senior correspondent at Insider.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-delusional-stock-market-crash-pain-recession-inflation-profits-2022-9

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Wall Street braces for turmoil – The Hill

The inventory market Is about To close out a brutal month of losses as Wall Road braces for a rocky second half of the yr.  

All three primary U.S. inventory indexes — the Dow Jones Industrial Common, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite — reached bear market standing in June, falling A minimal of 20 % from doc highs set towrestleds The start of the yr. Whereas shares sank progressively for a lot of 2022, the promote-off accelerated in June amid deepening considerations Regarding the financial system.  

“We have been simply Sort of discovering our method alongside The beneathfacet, After which in June that semblance of a backside fell out. I really feel that was An exact psychological flip for buyers,” said Callie Cox, an funding analyst at eToro, An internet-based mostly investing platform.  

“Inflation isn’t beneath administration and markets haven’t pretty found their footing but. June felt like An exactity look at in a method, and it was An exactity look at for a state of affairs we didn’t absolutely understand,” she continued.  

The Dow fell roughly 1.5 % on the month So far, the S&P is down 2 % and the Nasdaq is down 3 %.  

After cruising by way of doc highs by way of 2021, shares drifted decrease all by way of the spring As a Outcome of the Federal Reserve ramped up its efforts to wrestle inflation. Economists have been hopeful that inflation had peaked in March, in sync with the Fed’s first Price of curiosity hike, and would lastly come down after reaching 40-yr highs.  

However as inflation steamed forward by way of Might and June, the Fed accelerated its makes an try To relax off worth will enhance while additionally boosting The hazard of a recession.   

Greater Price of pursuits from the Fed Are Alleged to sluggish the financial system enough To Scale again inflation with out halting progress or forcing layoffs. The Fed goals to ramp up costs progressively And currents the financial system enough time To regulate to higher borrowing prices.  

The Fed, by no meansthemuch less, has been pressured To hurry The tactic As a Outcome of the wrestle in Ukraine and pandemic-associated current snarls push inflation even higher. The skyrocketing worth of oil and gasoline has additionally fueled speedy worth will enhance all by way of the financial system.  

To get forward of speedyly rising inflation, the Fed raised Price of pursuits by 0.5 proportion factors in Might and in June issued The primary 0.75 proportion level hike since 1994  

“The June promote-off was largely pushed by extra aggressive rhetoric from the Fed, rising oil prices and inflation That is staying sticky,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally.  

Greater Fed Price of pursuits are a direct monetary blow to corporations, which face higher borrowing prices and sdecrease gross sales as costs go higher and consumers pull again spending. Greater Price of pursuits additionally make fundings in riskier belongings And firms with out confirmed monitor data much less engaging, which brings down The worth of inventory prices.  

Whereas shares are crumbling beneath The load Of higher borrowing prices, buyers have additionally Discover your self to be alarmed with their potential influence on the financial system. The promote-off comes amid a steep decline in shopper confidence and rising fears of a recession hitting the U.S. financial system as quickly as subsequent yr.  

The Convention Board’s shopper confidence index, a gauge of how People view the financial system, fell to 98.7 in June, Based on knowledge launched by the enterprise commerce group Tuesday. The index fell from 103.2 in Might to The backside level since February 2021, earlier than COVID-19 vaccines have been extensively out there Inside the U.S.  

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Cox said the steep decline in shares over the previous six months is a pure An factor of the market flows And by no means primarily a harbinger of recession. All three indexes stay above their pre-pandemic highs after exploding in worth by way of 2020 and 2021 As a Outcome of of combination of shut to-zero Fed Price of pursuits, trillions in fiscal stimulus and a decline in spending on providers Through The peak of COVID-19 fears.  

“All of a sudden, we’ve swung to The completely different facet of the pendulum and we’re Dealing with a Fed that’s elevating Price of pursuits and talking Price of pursuits into the market aggressively,” she said.  

“These ebbs and flows are what you see in markets over time. It simply Seems that the ebbs and flows are Barely bit greater These days.”

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3540569-wall-street-braces-for-turmoil/

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Top Wall Street analysts stand by these stocks as the first half of 2022 wraps up – CNBC

An indication on the campus workplaces of chipmaker Broadcom Ltd is proven in Irvine, California.

Mike Blake | Reuters

As a Outcome of the primary half of 2022 winds down, buyers Might Be constructive of A minimal Of 1 factor: This yr will probably proceed to be troublesome.

Financial hazard is prime of thoughts for buyers, as funding banks – collectively with UBS, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs – enhance their expectations for the probability of a recession.

Analysts are wanting previous the tumult of the quick time period, choosing out shares they think about might be strong bets for The Prolonged time period. Listed right here are 5 shares picked by A pair of of Wall Road’s prime execs, Based mostly on TipRanks, which ranks Definitely one of the biggest-performing analysts.

KLA Company 

KLA Company (KLAC) is a semiconductor agency specializing in wafer fab gear manufacturing. Worldwide current chain factors have been constricting The agency’s potential, and the inventory has misplaced round 21% yr So far.  

However, KLA’s management Inside the area of curiosity market of course of administration might act as a buffer all by way of recessionary occasions. Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who currently reitepriced a buy rating with a worth goal of $395 on The agency, reprimaryed bullish on KLA’s enhanced stability of expoconstructive to foundry/logic and reminiscence course ofes. 

Bolton highlighted KLA’s fixed dividend-paying coverage. “The agency expects to proceed rising its dividend at a mid-teenagers progress price,” he said. (See KLA’s Dividend Date & Historic previous on TipRanks) 

The analyst think abouts that KLA will proceed to outperform the wafer fab gear enterprise and primarytain gaining extra share Inside The tactic administration market. 

Bolton holds the No. 2 spot amongst virtually 8,000 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Furtherextra, 65% of his inventory scores have been revenueable, returning A imply of 41.7% per rating.  

Broadcom 

Broadcom (AVGO) designs, develops, manufactures and currents numerous semiconductor and infraconstruction gentleware program merchandise. Like most primary semiconductor corporations, Broadcom has additionally confronted The current-chain inconveniences and Lack of worth that acquired here with the broader tech sector promote-off. The AVGO inventory has slid round 23% So far this yr. (See Broadcom Stock Chart on TipRanks).

Nonetheless, Deutsche Financial institution analyst Ross Seyextra Isn’t too apprehensive Regarding The agency’s execspects. In a current investor meeting, the analyst interviewed C-suite members of Broadcom. Through the interview, when requested about how The agency plans To Deal with the recession if it occurs, administration said thOn The agency is prioritizing delivery solely on true demand pretty than combination bookings. That is being carried out To Enconstructive “A comparatively gentle touchdown if/when the cyclical considerations do come to fruition.” 

Furtherextra, Broadcom is Properly-acknowledged for its progress-by-acquisition stpricegy, which has assisted The agency scale again rivals and enter untapped markets earlier. This time, Broadcom Is about to take over cybersafety participant VMWare (VMW). Broadcom acknowledged that it faces A quick-time period influence on its accounting incomes As a Outcome of of transition of the VMWare enterprise to a subscription-based mannequin. However, incomes are anticipated to acceleprice after the preliminary pullagain. 

“We proceed to view AVGO’s combination of infraconstruction-heavy, mission-essential semiconductor and merchandise as offering fascinating stability in an environment of rising macro/semi-sector volatility,” said Seyextra. 

Ross Seyextra is ranked No. 19 amongst virtually 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. His scores have genepriced common returns of 23.6% and have been revenueable 73% of the time. 

Adobe 

In all probability The biggest-acknowledged gentleware program corporations, Adobe (ADBE) has constructed a mannequin that’s assisted by A strong product line That options Photoshop, Illustrator, and InDesign. However, current occasions Have not been type to The agency, which currently currentd weak steerage for FY22, inflicting its shares to plummet. 

Adobe sprimeped all new gentleware program gross sales to Russia and Belarus, Which might Finish in a $75 million income loss. Furtherextra, overseas commerce headwinds are additionally anticipated to claw away $175 million in its fiscal third and fourth quarters. (See Adobe Risk Elements on TipRanks) 

Nonetheless, Deutsche Financial institution analyst Brad Zelnick Isn’t as involved as completely different buyers. Rather, he was impressed by The agency pretty factoring Inside The outcomes of the headwinds. He additionally think abouts that this weak expectation will assist Adobe neacquirediate huge enterprise provides extra effectively. Furtherextra, the tepid steerage Can additionally assist The agency revenue from “F4Q renewal seasonality that comes with an associated Inventive pricing uplift.” Which implys extra clients are More probably To renew their subscriptions beneath new pricing plans. 

Further, with The complete addressable Market for Adobe’s merchandise being a whopping $205 billion, the analyst Does not see The agency struggling a lot to recupeprice from The current bear market. 

Bolton powerened his bullish stance on Adobe with a buy rating on the inventory. However, he up So far his estimates for The agency’s end outcomes for The current quarter And monetary yr, and accordingly slashed The worth goal to $500 from $575. 

In accordance to TipRanks, Zelnick has a 68% success price and common returns of 16.5% per rating. With Adobe Notably, he has had 78% success and 19.1% common return per rating. 

Suncor 

Integpriced power agency Suncor (SU) produces synthetic crude from oil sands. For constructive, being Inside the power sector has revenueed the inventory immensely this yr: It has gained virtually 38%. 

RBC Capital analyst Greg Pardy is bullish on the sustainability of the inventory’s rally. He famous that Suncor has made a quantity of management modifications To reinforce its working reliability and safety Inside the aftime periodath of intense scrutiny from activist buyers like Elliott Management.  

Pardy speculates that Suncor will primarytain safe oil sands manufacturing prices and optimize its useful resource base to assist A discount in carbon emissions in its oil extraction course of over time. (See Suncor Energy Insider Buying and promoting Exercise on TipRanks) 

The analyst reitepriced a buy rating on the SU inventory, and he enhanced The worth goal to $53 from $47. “Our current collection of institutional conferences in London with Suncor left us inspired thOn The agency has a tighter grip on the steps required to regain its standing as a biggest-in-class oil sands operator,” he said.

Pardy holds the Sixty fourth place amongst about 8,000 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Furtherextra, 60% of his scores So far have been revenueable, delivering common returns of 27.1% per rating.

Imperial Oil 

RBC’s Pardy thinks that integpriced oil producer Imperial Oil (IMO) Is usually An excellent inventory to hedge your portfolio in the direction ofs the uncertainties dealing with the markets this yr.  

Notably, Imperial is working relentlessly on a blueprint Which will steer The agency to a zero-emission future. With the assist of superior utilized sciences, The agency is quickly progressing in the direction of its objective. Imperial expects these utilized sciences To Reduce the depth of carbon emissions by 25% to 90% in its upcoming oil sands manufacturing tasks. (See Imperial Oil Hedge Fund Buying and promoting Exercise on TipRanks) 

Pardy thinks that Imperial “possesses a succesful management group, A constructive long-time period working outlook, A strong stability sheet, and a dedication to shareholder returns.” Furtherextra, the analyst additionally factors out that strong manufacturing prices in Imperial’s property in Kearl in northern Alberta is lifting The agency’s general working momentum, further fueled by an enhancing value construction. 

Pardy reitepriced a buy rating on the inventory, and lifted The worth goal to $78 from $66. “Our current dialogue with Imperial’s CEO, Brad Corson, On the RBC Worldwide Energy, Energy & Infraconstruction Convention emphasised power Inside The agency’s downstream half amid An monumental commodity worth tailwind and Imperial’s dedication to ongoing shareholder returns,” the analyst wrote. 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/26/top-wall-street-analysts-say-buy-stocks-like-broadcom-adobe.html

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Why Are Super-Rich Wall Street Donors Targeting Local Bronx Elections? – THE CITY

Super-rich political donors are looking for To impact native races in northwestern Bronx neighborhoods for the second election yr in a row – this time in a sleepy Democratic primary election as quickly as extrast longtime Meetingmember Jose Rivera in Kingsbridge Heights and Belmont.

Shifting NY Forward (MNYF), an unbiased expenditure fund with ties to Jane Road Capital, a secretive Wall Road agency, has So far spent shut toly $200,000 to assist Emmanuel Martinez, a Democratic state committeeman and the district supervisor of Space people Board 7. That’s Extra of the Decrease than $14,000 Martinez’s personal advertising campaign has enhanced by way of late Might, Greater than half donated by himself.

The Shifting NY Forward group is paying for a blitz of mailers and two area staff aimed On the June 28 primary election — As properly as to a billboard truck pfinalered with a towering picture of the candidate.

Rivera has served the 78th Meeting District since 2001, after an earlier stint Inside the Meeting Inside the ‘80s. Well-appreciated Collectively with his constituents, he was reelected in 2020 with 86% of the vote, and secured the Democratic primary earlier than that by 83% of the vote. 

The final time Rivera was forcefully focused was Greater than a decade in the past, when in 2008 a insurgent faction of the county Democratic celebration – dubbed the “Rainbow Revolt,” in a nod to its variety – mounted a worthwhile advertising campaign to unseat Rivera as county Democratic celebration chair and set up Carl Heastie in his place. 

Nboth Martinez nor Rivera responded to a quantity of requests for remark from The metropolis. However some constituents spoke up vocally in assist of Rivera.

Requested for who she would vote for Inside the June 28 primary, Maribel Garcia, a “50-one factor” resident of the neighborhood for 18 yrs, said in Spanish “So far as I’m involved, Rivera can primarytain in office for 30 extra yrs. We now Have not any complaints.”

Shifting NY Forward, funded by a single $1.5 million contribution from Michael Jenkins of the digital buying and promoting agency Jane Road, said in A press launch to The metropolis that it endorses candidates who “embody the beliefs of racial, social, financial and environmental simplyice and have a professionalven doc of preventing on behalf of marginalized communities.”

Shifting NY Forward has furtherly spent extra modest sums in assist of reelecting Queens Meetingmember Catalina Cruz — who has no opponent for both The primary or widespread election.

It’s furtherly againing Brooklyn Meeting hopeful Hercules Reid, an aide to Mightor Eric Adams who recently misplaced a particular election for the seat earlier thanhand held by U.S. Ambassador to Jamaica Nick Perry regardless of an Adams endorsement. Reid is now working Inside the Democratic primary. 

Shifting NY Forward declared its intention to “again candidates throughout the boroughs dedicated to improfessionalving and growing pretty priced housing, reducing class sizes, growing entry to extreme quality pretty priced well beingcare and free full day childcare, closing the digital divide, reducing meals insafety, improfessionalving group safety and sanitation, growing transportation entry and advocating for tenant rights.”

In distinction to candidates, unbiased teams can enhance and spend limitless sums, but They will’t coordinate or collaborate with the advertising campaigns.

Democratic Party insiders have been scratching their heads over the secretive expenditure committee, pondering whOn the group’s objective is and why a Tribeca finance authorities is sinking huge dollars into low-stakes races.

Jenkins, his companion and prime Jane Road colleagues earlier thanhand made The utmost contributions allowed to the 2020 congressional advertising campaign of Tomas Ramos, who misplaced the election to Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-The Bronx) but concurrently activated A gaggle referred to as Bronx Rising Initiative, persevering with to distribute private funds to native well being care suppliers, scholar scholarships and completely different causes.

On Saturday, a billboard truck paid for by Shifting NY Forward was parked On the Morris Avenue block celebration hosted by New Life Bronx Church, the pulpit of former City Council member Fernando Cabrera. Such indicators value between $1,800 to $2,500, on prime of an hourly truck rental value, Based mostly on A One which anshave beend the telephone On the rental agency.

Bronx Meetingmember José Rivera converses about education.

However has The money been worth it?

“I heard of that man. I do know he’s working for mayor,” said Definitely one of many block celebration revelers The subsequent day, who recognized himself merely as “O.”

“We see indicators All by way of the place, all these slogans, these ensures — but nofactor Regarding The factors. The place’s the substance?” Jesús Almonte, 53, said in Spanish in entrance of a bodega shut to The state of affairs of the block celebration on Morris Avenue.

Martinez Did not Reply to requests for remark from The metropolis. 

Second Election in a Row

The placeas New Life Bronx Church’s block celebration was underway, Martinez was one block over talking to potential voters at a “Espresso with Manny” event at New Capitol Diner on West Kingsbridge Road.

A spokesperson for Shifting NY Forward said on Monday thOn the group “was not conscious that Martinez was internet hosting an event Inside The world, and no MNYF staffers have been On the block celebration.” 

On Saturday morning, Martinez hosted a 5-minute Instagram Stay video Regarding the Kingsbridge Armory, a district landmark that has seen two primary redevelopment plans collapse over the previous 20 yrs — and reprimarys vacant.

The candidate asked voters to think about whOn the armory might Discover your self to be, declaring that its rebirth would “change the facade of our superb district and The Bronx as A complete.” 

“Let’s be reliable, people: That is the Bronx. We ought to always have basketball, we ought to have soccer, we ought to have indoor batting cages, factors That converse to our people, a group center for Our youngsters. Issues that We will join with That are needed to revitalize our superb group,” he said.

Shifting NY Forward’s authorities director Martha Ayon said in A press launch thOn the “professionaludly Latino-led unbiased expenditure” recognized districts To focus on “Which have by no means acquired right funding.”

Describing the district where Martinez is working, she pointed to its largely Latino inhabitants and extreme ranges of poverty.

“Its residents, like so many New Yorkers, are Battling an affordability disaster,” she said. “This district has had The identical illustration For many yrs And by way of That time has not acquired right funding or seen any primary capital improfessionalvements or extreme quality of life improfessionalvements.”

The Jenkins election dollars Adjust to the circulate of completely differents into The world.

It’s the second election yr in a row that outdoors super-rich people have sought To impact voters in that An factor of The Bronx, with unusually extreme expenditures for native elections.

In final yr’s native elections, where advertising campaign contributions are A lot extra strictly capped than for state races, A gaggle funded by Walmart heiress and structure school activist Alice Walton spent $75,000 on mailers assisting City Council candidate John Sanchez — who misplaced to now-Councilmember Oswald Feliz in a particular election.

Exact property developer William Zeckendorf furtherly spent generously to assist Sanchez As properly as to Eric Dinowitz, Who’s now the Council member representing the northern An factor of The world.

Some constituents Contained in the 78th Meeting District who spoke with The metropolis on Sunday have been involved about Wall Road’s funding Inside the neighborhood.

“It Could be all this real property, it’s All by way of the place. They may Want A bit of that, too,” said a voter who recognized himself merely as Carlos. “However I primarytain out of politics.” He’d acquired professional-Martinez mailers at his house, he said, but Did not bcompletely different to look at who had paid for them.

Others Weren’t impressed by Jenkins’ largesse.

Garcia, seated on a fold-out chair in entrance of a Morris Avenue bodega cooling off with añejo rum and coconut water alongside Almonte and a half-dozen completely different neighbors, rebuffed the mogul’s spending and joked that she and her neighbors have been “the millionaires of Kingsbridge.”

“We’re joyful, we’re healthful, none of us acquired COVID, we’re alive, We will have these drinks, we work six days Every week and we’re simply nice. We may not have their hundreds of hundreds but we On A daily basis have An further $20 in our pocket. We’re good.”

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Source: https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/6/7/23158904/super-rich-wall-street-donors-targeting-local-bronx-elections

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Short sellers raise bets against GameStop and AMC to highest level in a year as Wall Street sees more pain ahead – MarketWatch

Buyers are as quickly as as quickly as extra working up the fortitude to guess as quickly as extrast GameStop and AMC roughly 18 months after final January’s infamous “meme inventory” brief squeeze despatched GameStop shares surging Greater than 1,000%.

That transfer was so sharp that It Will undoubtedly prompted Robinhood
HOOD,
-4.28%
and completely different retail brokerages To restrict buying and promoting — A selection that prompted a congressional listening to and widespread outrage.

A minimal Of 1 hedge fund, Melvin Capital, misplaced billions on its guess as quickly as extrast GameStop
GME,
+14.36%,
forcing it To hunt an emergency money infusion. More than a yr later, Melvin decided to wind down.

Although brief curiosity is now nowhere shut to the exaggerated levels that preceded January 2021’s historic rally, knowledge from S3 Companions reveals that brief curiosity in each GameStop and AMC Leisure Holdings Inc.
AMC,
+9.37%
is wanting elevated as quickly as as quickly as extra, having reached its extremeest diploma in A few yr. By comparability, briefly earlier than the buying and promoting frenzy actually kicked off 18 months in the past , brief curiosity in GameStop reportedly exceeded 100%, which Is potential since shares can, Inside concept, be borrowed and purchased brief Greater than as quickly as.

The current rise Briefly curiosity was famous in each agency’s earnings reviews: GameStop reported its earnings for The primary three months of 2022 final week, whereas AMC reported final month.

Based mostly on the S3 Companions knowledge, brief curiosity is equal to 23% of GameStop’s float.


Supply: S3 Companions

And for AMC, that decide is 22%.


Supply: S3 Companions

Wall Road analysts who cowl GameStop and AMC Are often pessimistic. Analysts anticipate earnings per share to contract For every shares heading into The subsequent fiscal yr, in accordance to the FactSet median estimate.

And there’s good set off for that — at least So far as GameStop Is apprehensive. Wedbush’s Michael Pachter, who has been cowling GameStop since February 2002, says investors have good set off to be skeptical.

“The fundamentals are dangerous, with spending on new initiatives (NFT market, crypto pockets) wiping out the little Little bit of income we anticipated them to earn from their core enterprise,” Pachter said. “They misplaced money Inside The journey quarter for The primary time ever…and their money stability declined by round $700 million Over the previous three quarters. They burned $300 million in money in The Latest quarter, however A pair of of that was an inexplicable buildup of inventory (they don’t reply questions, so no cas quickly aspt what They’re doing).”

GameStop shares rallied forward of their latest earnings report, however have drifted decrease since. They are down shut toly 10% As a Outcome of The start of the yr, whereas AMC shares have fallen Greater than 50% in That time. GameStop shares ended Tuesday up 14.4% at $146.50, in contrast with a 52-week extreme of $344.66. AMC shares shutd with a obtain of 9.4% at $13.07, in contrast with a 52-week extreme of $64.96.

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bets-against-amc-and-gamestop-rise-to-highest-level-in-a-year-as-wall-street-sees-more-pain-ahead-11654626320

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ProFrac gets a unanimously bullish endorsement from Wall Street – MarketWatch

Shares of ProFrac Holding Corp. powered to a current extreme Tuesday, after Wall Road gave the fracking providers agency a unanimously bullish finishorsement, Rather Decrease than a month after A comparatively disappointing public dehowever.

The Willow Park, Texas-based mostly agency went public on Might 13, after its preliminary public offering worthd at $18 a share, properly under the anticipated differ of between $21 and $24. The agency raised $288 million Inside the IPO, with the pricing valuing the agency at about $2.5 billion.

The inventory
PFHC,
+11.88%
opened its first day under the IPO worth, at $17.60, however bounced To close simply above it at $18.11. It then shutd under the IPO worth in eight of The subsequent 9 durations by way of Might 26, however has shutd above it As a Outcome of then.

Don’t miss: Buyers hoping to pounce on summer time IPOs Might Even be out of luck. Right here’s why.

The inventory shot up 11.7% in afternoon buying and promoting Tuesday, placing it on monitor for Definitely one of the biggest one-day efficiency As a Outcome of the IPO. It has soared 25.9% Because it final shutd under the IPO worth.

A minimal Of 4 analysts initiated safety of ProFrac on Tuesday, all with the equal of buy scores. The typical worth goal of the 4 analysts was $26.25, or 46% above the IPO worth.

In all probability the most bullish was Morgan Stanley’s Connor Lynagh, who had The very biggest inventory worth goal of $30.

Lynagh said the agency was a “Prime extreme quality, vertically constructed-in frac contractor poised for a quantity of enlargement,” if administration can proceed to ship peer-main end outcomes. As properly as, following substantial enterprise consolidation and performance attrition over the previous few years, Lynagh believes the hydraulic fracturing enterprise “is getting Proper into a bull market.”


FactSet, MarketWatch

The subsequent-most bullish was Seaport Evaluation’s Tom Curran, who positioned a $26 goal on the inventory.

Curran believes enterprise frac performance utilization ought To primarytain “very extreme” and assist of pumper pricing power by way of 2023 on strengthening demand.

“Inside this framework, we anticipate [ProFrac] To enhance its common lively rely from 31 for 2Q2022 to 40 for 4Q2023 whereas attaining internet pricing positive elements As a Outcome of it leverages in-house manufacturing and know-how advantages, effectively optimizes the legacy [FTS Worldwide Inc.] fleet, and rolls out a quantity of e-frac spreads,” Curran wrote.

J.P. Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram started with a worth goal of $25, saying ProFrac’s inventory was buying and promoting at vital disrelys to its primary frac friends. Regardless of this disrely, Jayaram said ProFrac’s in-house manufacturing amenities are “a aggressive moat” As a Outcome of it provides the agency with The power to restore and primarytain its frac fleet As properly as To finish gasoline grades at vital disrelys to its friends.

Analyst Stephen Gengaro at Stifel Nicolaus positioned a $24 goal on ProFrac’s inventory, saying he anticipates “strong” income and adsimplyed earnings progress A minimal of by way of 2023, assisted by strong enterprise fundamentals.

The agency has recorded a internet Lack of $42.4 million on income of $768.4 million in 2021, after A scarcity of $117.4 million on income of $547.7 million in 2020.

The inventory has rallied 24.7% from its shut on its first day, whereas the shares of fellow fracking providers agency ProPetro Holding Corp.
PUMP,
+0.51%
have climbed 9.8% and the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.95%
has tacked on 2.7% over The identical time.

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/profrac-gets-a-unanimously-bullish-endorsement-from-wall-street-11654623328

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Wall Street lifts oil price forecasts across the board – Seeking Alpha

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Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3846261-wall-street-lifts-oil-price-forecasts-across-the-board